We forget

We forget



We forget that in nature, "change" does not occur in a nice slow transition from one state to another, but frequently happens in abrupt and unexpected leaps from one condition to another.

On a graph this would be a sharply jagged line, instead of the nice smooth one we hope to anticipate.

Source: "The Fractal Geometry of Nature" by Benoit Mandelbrot


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Similarly, we cannot really visualize random events.   When asked to draw dots in a "random distribution" on a piece of paper, people generally draw dots in an "even distribution."   In a random distribution of events, unexpected events can occur very closely near each other.   In an even distribution of events, they do not.

Source: "Fortune's Formula" by William Poundstone



copyright(c) 2014 Wm Schaeffer