Thoughts on Change
by Bill Schaeffer
May 2002
In his book "Notes to Myself,” author Hugh Prather describes a game
where he tries to predict what he will be doing in 15 minutes and finds
that he is invariably wrong. Some unforeseen event, such as a phone
call or remembered obligation, inevitably changes his future. He makes
the observation that if he can't predict what he will be doing in 15
minutes, how could he possibly predict what he will be doing in five years.
Looking back at my career, and the manner that technology has
progressed, it seems that no one could have predicted the digital
Visual Effects industry as it
is today.
When I took my first Computer Science Class in 1976 the main interface
was teletype or punch card readers. There were no computer terminals,
although vector graphic terminals were soon to appear. There were no
camcorders or video cassettes and most news crews still used 16 mm
film. The hand held calculator had just replaced the slide rule in
engineering classes. Cable TV did not exist and speculation on the
viability of the medium was mixed. The mouse had not yet been invented and phone machines were a rarity. Personal Computers had not been invented.
When I took my first Computer Science Class in 1976 the main interface
was teletype or punch card readers. There were no computer terminals,
although vector graphic terminals were soon to appear. There were no
camcorders or video cassettes and most news crews still used 16 mm
film. The hand held calculator had just replaced the slide rule in
engineering classes. Cable TV did not exist and speculation on the
viability of the medium was mixed. The mouse had not yet been invented and phone machines were a rarity. Personal Computers had not been invented.
The only available storage
mediums were data drives the size of a small washing machine or large 2"
magnetic tape reels. The Voyager II, that was launched the next year, had a
total on-board memory of 16k. This is less than some cell phones today.
How could anyone have predicted that in 25 years you could edit feature
films and produce life like special effects on equipment that any
consumer could purchase?
In time, many amazing tools have been invented and we now live in a
technological environment that is vastly different. The personal
computer, the internet, video cassette, camcorder, cell phone, mouse,
compact disc, and many other inventions have made life rich with
possibilities that were unimaginable just a few years ago.
Despite the challenges and difficulties, it has been an amazing period
of technological change and I feel genuinely lucky to have been a part
of it. I look forward to the inevitable changes that are continuing to happen.
How could anyone have predicted that in 25 years you could edit feature
films and produce life like special effects on equipment that any
consumer could purchase?
In time, many amazing tools have been invented and we now live in a
technological environment that is vastly different. The personal
computer, the internet, video cassette, camcorder, cell phone, mouse,
compact disc, and many other inventions have made life rich with
possibilities that were unimaginable just a few years ago.
Despite the challenges and difficulties, it has been an amazing period
of technological change and I feel genuinely lucky to have been a part
of it. I look forward to the inevitable changes that are continuing to happen.
I have a saying that has been central to my philosophy and I would like
to share it:
“Plan for the future,
but don't plan on it.
Anticipate the worst,
but expect the best.”
At one point in his campaigns, Alexander the Great called together his
philosophers for advice. He asked them to give him a phrase he could
say to himself on any occasion, tragic or triumphant. They retired, and
after some deliberation, arrived at a saying they found appropriate.
The phrase, I think, is useful for anyone to remember in good times and
in bad. It is a very simple truth of life:
"This too will pass."
And before it all passes away, I hope to experience as much as I can.
Life is short and we have only a little time to make the most of it.
If the past is any indication, the future should be very exciting!
Addendum 2014:
It seems that I am an eternal
optimist and my life has turned out to be more disappointment and downturn than
I could have imagined at the time of this original writing. I’ve lost all my savings, my condo, and most
of my friends. I still have my artwork
in storage at this time, but I have been recently diagnosed with a Hernia that
I cannot pay to repair. I am unemployed
and cannot find work in my previous profession.
My family will not speak to me.
Children stare at me when they see me in the street.
Nevertheless, when I am not
yelling in anger and throwing books across the room, I stop and smile and
repeat to myself:
“It
is ALL part of the Fun.”
And when you find that things
do not turn out the way you planned and you are frustrated and angry; I suggest
that you think about repeating this phrase to yourself also:
“It is ALL part of the Fun.”
Even at its worst, life is
still marginally better than “not life”
The price we pay for the rewards of living are the pain, disappointment,
heartache, and loss that we inevitably experience. Check back in twelve more
years and see how we are all doing.
Copyright© 2002, 2004, 2014 William Schaeffer
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